Looking to the sky. Could the long-awaited delivery of F-16 bombers to Ukraine change the course of the war?

Denmark, Belgium, the Netherlands and Norway have pledged to supply the largest number of fighter jets, and groups of Ukrainian pilots have been trained to fly F-16 aircraft in the United States, Great Britain, France, Denmark and Romania.

The arrival of the first F-16 aircraft in Ukraine can be expected at any moment. Novaya Europe investigated whether or not the state-of-the-art aircraft will finally ensure the Ukrainian Air Force’s air superiority, listening to the concerns of experts who say that the Ukrainian Air Force simply will not have enough trained pilots to fully utilize the fighter jets’ capabilities.

Foreign promises

The exact number of aircraft currently available to the Ukrainian Air Force (UAF) is unknown, but The Military Balance, an open-source directory of armed forces published by the International Institute for Strategic Studies, reported in early 2022 that the UAF numbered about 45,000 troops and had 124 combat aircraft and 63 transport and special aircraft.

What is clear is that the UAF will benefit enormously from the delivery of F-16 fighter jets. The relatively weak Ukrainian counteroffensive of 2023 has left the country vulnerable to Russian attacks. The situation is further exacerbated by Washington’s constantly evolving requirements for the use of US weapons on Russian territory.

Although both armies are suffering from a shortage of weapons, ammunition and soldiers, the arrival of the F-16 fighter jets could, according to experts at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), “create the conditions for a long-awaited breakthrough in the war.”

“With the right strategy, doctrinal approach, logistical support, and training, F-16 fighter jets could represent a critical advance in improving Ukraine’s border defenses and establishing local air superiority, significantly strengthening Ukraine’s position on the ground,” says a recent CSIS analysis.

Despite the UAF’s modernization over the past decade, it was still considered a relatively weak military power at the start of the war. “From the beginning of the large-scale invasion, many were surprised that the Russians did not deal with the Ukrainian Air Force quickly,” Israeli military observer David Sharp told Novaya Gazeta Europe.

The UAF became far more effective after its allies supplied it with munitions, allowing it to precisely attack targets in Russian-occupied territories. However, Sharp said NATO weapons would be far more effective if fired from Western aircraft.

Although the Su-24 bombers are capable of firing certain types of French and British air-launched cruise missiles, they are not able to “control them in flight,” said military expert, flight instructor and reserve colonel of the Ukrainian Armed Forces Roman Switan. He added: “If the F-16 can be equipped with the equipment to launch these missiles, the attacks would become even more precise.”

Since Russia’s large-scale invasion, the UAF has suffered significant losses. At least eight MiG-29 aircraft, eight Su-24 bombers and several other military transport aircraft have been shot down or destroyed. In particular, the Ukrainian airfield of Starokostiantyniv has been the target of a barrage of Russian missile attacks.

Svitan expects the size of the UAF in 2024 to be about the same as in 2022, due to the replenishment of Ukrainian aircraft shot down by allied aircraft gifted to Kyiv. The delivery of the promised F-16s will only make the Ukrainian Air Force even stronger.

Political will

Although the F-16 fighter jets promised by Belgium, Denmark, the Netherlands and Norway will significantly strengthen Ukraine’s military power, their delivery also brings with it several new challenges.

Operating F-16 aircraft requires highly qualified and well-trained pilots, and there are very few pilots with the required experience in Ukraine. While dozens of pilots are already being trained in Europe and the US, in order to use the fighter jets effectively, more ground personnel and pilots must begin training immediately.

While this would consume a lot of resources and could cost Ukraine valuable time in its already vulnerable position, Sharp argues that if Kyiv receives more F-16s than it can fly, the aircraft would in fact become a liability rather than an asset.

“A few hundred F-16s could change the rules of the game in this war. But at the moment there is no talk of such deliveries, and it is impossible to quickly train 400 pilots,” a Russian military expert who wished to remain anonymous told Novaya Europe.

“It will take years for the Ukrainian Air Force to gain enough experience to effectively conduct combat missions,” the CSIS analysts said in their report. The situation may be further complicated by the fact that the Ukrainian military does not have air-to-ground munitions, the launch of which is the F-16’s primary function.

Finally, the CSIS report stressed the importance of Ukraine being able to maintain and repair its F-16 jets, which could prove difficult without the appropriate equipment.

Nevertheless, Svitan said he believes that Ukraine’s technical personnel are ready and that all necessary measures have been taken to prepare the country’s airfields. “Ukraine hopes to receive a brigade of at least three squadrons” or “40-50 aircraft” by the end of the year, he noted.

Svitan added that he expected the F-16 handover to proceed smoothly as long as the political will of the U.S. government remained strong, and said the exact details of the F-16 handover would likely be discussed at the NATO summit in Washington next week.

“It is not yet known what type of ammunition will be supplied with the aircraft or what radars will be installed in them,” the anonymous Russian military expert told Novaya Europe, adding that “modern Russian aircraft of the Sukhoi family have a more powerful radar, which gives them a certain advantage.”

On this point, Switan strongly disagreed. “One air brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces will be enough to completely take over the initiative in the skies over Crimea,” he said.

While experts disagree about the overall impact of the F-16 on the war, there is general agreement that if used properly, the F-16 will significantly increase the strength of the Ukrainian Air Force.

Sharp claims that the Russian Air Force is far better prepared for an intense and protracted air war than the Ukrainian one. Russia has reportedly now equipped its fighter jets with the R-37M, the world’s longest-range air-to-air missile. Although the missiles have failed to stop Ukrainian airstrikes, this impressive technology is just one example of Russia’s remaining edge over Ukraine.

“Today, Ukrainian aviation performs only a limited list of tasks,” the Russian military expert said. “However, if the Ukrainian Air Force is significantly increased with Western aircraft, they will be able to attack both ground and surface targets, as well as strengthen air defense by shooting down Russian aircraft, helicopters, cruise missiles and drones.”

“A fully-fledged modern air force could change the course of the war,” said Sharp, but also stressed the importance of pilots having real combat experience and ground personnel being fully trained. “Only such a fully functional system will achieve significant results in the current war. But that is still a long way off.”